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Less OrdinaryOctober 22 Web Ads Hidden Under Cloak of Invisibility (zz wsj)By EMILY STEELKraft Foods, Greyhound Lines and Capital One Financial have bought some strange ads on the Internet lately. What's so strange about them is that they're invisible. The companies might not have known about their invisible display ads—the kind that are supposed to appear alongside content on Web pages—if not for Ben Edelman, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School who studies Internet advertising. Mr. Edelman says his research shows that all three marketers, and many others, have fallen victim to Web sites that use such ads as a way to sell more ad space than they have. The Web sites can get away with it, he says, because online advertisers don't always audit their campaigns for proof their ads are appearing. It isn't clear how common these ads are or how much they cost marketers. Mr. Edelman and other Internet-security experts say the ads are created with the use of computer code that makes it look to marketers as though their ads are showing up on legitimate Web sites. But consumers who visit those sites can't see the ads because they have been placed on invisible Web pages. In one example, visitors to a site called MyToursInfo.com saw an ordinary-looking Web page with one ad for Verizon Communications and another for a weight-loss product. But, Mr. Edelman, who studied the site in January, said software code running behind the scenes opened more than 40 Web pages, each including three ads from marketers such as Domino's Pizza and Capital One, which were invisible to visitors. Mr. Edelman's analysis of the code was confirmed by computer-security experts at Symantec and McAfee as well as online-ad advisory firms DoubleVerify and Anchor Intelligence. MyToursInfo.com has since shut down, and efforts to identify its operators were unsuccessful. Domino's Pizza says it is aware of sites like MyToursInfo.com and is taking steps to protect against them by buying display ads it pays for only when a consumer clicks on them. Capital One said it wasn't familiar with the situation but said it keeps "a close eye" on its online ads. Verifying that ads appear is an issue that has long plagued traditional media, particularly commercials on local TV stations. But a single online ad campaign can appear on thousands of Web sites, making verification even harder. Advertisers often buy display ads based on the number of times they are loaded onto a page, rather than the number of clicks they get. Over the past, year, an increasing number of scams have sought to take advantage of that pricing system as advertisers have started buying more of their online ads via middlemen called ad networks, instead of directly from the Web sites themselves. These networks sell ad space at cheap rates across thousands of sites, and they don't always weed out illegitimate players. Several such networks, including Burst Media and Tribal Fusion, sold ads that appeared on the MyToursInfo.com site, Mr. Edelman says, according to his analysis of computer code. Tribal says MyToursInfo.com isn't included in its network now but can't say whether it was in the past. Burst says MyToursInfo.com was included in its network earlier this year but isn't now part of its network. The ad networks say they use a combination of high-tech scans and manual processes to ferret out unscrupulous sites. "Unfortunately, these bad actors are kind of like ants at a picnic. You constantly have to be vigilant," says Chuck Moran, Burst Media's chief marketing officer. "It is one of the big challenges of running a network," says Toby Gabriner, president of Tribal Fusion. He said his company now is working with Mr. Edelman to help detect possible fraud across its network. Mr. Edelman does similar consulting work for clients including Time Warner's AOL and Microsoft. Ads are typically rendered invisible by manipulating computer codes called iframes that determine how a Web page appears on a visitor's computer screen. Iframes allow one Web page to be built inside another, the procedure used to make display ads. But, programmers can also make iframes invisible, so that computer users don't see anything contained in them. In the case of the invisible ads, they typically use multiple invisible iframes. In the case of the invisible ads, they typically use multiple invisible iframes. Mr. Edelman, who trolls the Web for examples of invisible ads, says ads for Kraft Foods and Greyhound Lines recently ended up buried on invisible pages on a site called MyProfilePimp.com, which offers games, photos and other ways for consumers to personalizetheir profile pages on social-networking sites like Facebook. Mr. Edelman says a visit to the site in June opened a series of invisible pages on the visitor's computer with as many as 46 ads. He says none of those ads could be seen. MyProfilePimp.com declined to comment. Kraft says it monitors its online ad purchases but wasn't aware of the MyProfilePimp.com ads. "We are looking into it as we would with any other possible violation of our agreements," it said. Greyhound was similarly unaware of the case and said that the site shouldn't have been included in any of its ad-network buys. A spokeswoman says the bus line is working to "safeguard against fraudulent activity moving forward." Write to Emily Steel at emily.steel@wsj.com September 26 In One Home, a Mighty City's Rise and Fall - Price of Typical Detroit House: $7,100In One Home, a Mighty City's Rise and FallPrice of Typical Detroit House: $7,100From WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125390841258341665.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEADNewsCollection By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPSDETROIT -- On a grassy lot on a quiet block on a graceful boulevard stands the answer to a perplexing question: Why does the typical house in Detroit sell for $7,100? A House's Fortune Rises and FallsKey events for Detroit and for Boston Boulevard A House in DetroitPhotos from the neighborhood
Noah Rabinowitz for The Wall Street Journal The brick-and-stucco home at 1626 W. Boston Blvd. has watched almost a century of Detroit's ups and downs, through industrial brilliance and racial discord, economic decline and financial collapse. Its owners have played a part in it all. There was the engineer whose innovation elevated auto makers into kings; the teacher who watched fellow whites flee to the suburbs; the black plumber who broke the color barrier; the cop driven out by crime. The last individual owner was a subprime borrower, who lost the house when investors foreclosed. A city that began a slow slide 60 years ago has now entered a free fall, pushed by the twin crises of housing and cars. Detroit's population peaked at 1.85 million in the 1950 census. It is now less than half that. In July, unemployment hit 28.9%, almost triple the national average. And the median selling price for a home stood at a paltry $7,100 as of July, according to First American CoreLogic Inc., a real-estate research firm -- down from $73,000 three years earlier. A typical house in Cleveland sells for $65,000. One in St. Louis goes for $120,000. But, battered and forlorn today, both Detroit and 1626 W. Boston Blvd. were solid and optimistic 90 years ago. U can continue at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125390841258341665.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEADNewsCollection
September 09 突然瞟到。。。突然在msn 上瞟到这样一个标题:
“专家认为,将私募基金纳入监管是大势所趋;目前国内债券市场深度不够,基金产品应更多元化”
然后觉得要么是自己想像力不够,要么这个专家足够脑残:
(1)债券市场薄弱,跟发展基金产品有个狗屁关系?基金产品多元化,难道让基金去发债?
(2)私募基金纳入监管。。。 难道私募基金没有注册过xx投资公司?什么时候把证监会纳入纳税人的监管才是亟待解决的问题。
TNND August 10 我们这一代(zz)最近很懒,只能弄些二手的文字了。
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我们这一代英国《金融时报》中文网专栏作家许知远 2009-08-06
一 从京沈高速公路的豆各庄出口下来,车拐进一条引水渠旁的林荫道,再右转就进村了。一个再平常不过的郊区村落,主街上满是小商铺,从山西刀削面到手机、杂货店、还有提供从剃头到按摩所有服务的美发店,劣质的蓝底或红底的喷绘广告一个接一个、毫无章法的连成了一片。路面上尽是尘土,车过时扬起一片,让人无处可躲。 这丝毫不妨碍路边的人们从容不迫的吃下盘中的炒面,再心满意足的点上一支烟。他们有的青春年少、有的已近老年,都赤裸上身,肌肤黝黑。他们不是本村居民,是不远处那排在建的高楼富力又一城的工人。正是中午,他们享受着暂时的放松,抽烟、喝茶、与安徽老板娘无伤大雅的调笑几句。街对面美发店的姑娘斜坐在门前,专心打毛衣,右腿压在左腿上,有节奏的颤动着,红凉鞋若即若离的挂在腾空的右脚上。 倘若不算那排在建的住宅楼,北京市看守所是豆各庄最庞大的建筑群了。院墙与铁门隐藏了它的规模,只能看到两幢办公楼,大约六、七层高。透过接待室的后窗,我模糊的看到一幢二层板房,灰色、简陋,不知是否被关押人员所住,也不知这样的板房有几幢。 在网络上流传的说法是,许志永就关押在此。他不是我第一个被捕的朋友,却可能是第一个让我清晰的意识到“被捕”这种感觉的朋友。 7月23日的夜晚,我们一起在北大附近的一家餐厅吃饭。晚餐上,他似乎保持了一贯的乐观与信心,似乎9天前税务部门对公盟的突然造访和近乎疯狂的惩罚措施,一点都没让他心灰意冷。谁都清楚这是一次以经济为名义进行的压迫。 我们的国家似乎总是充斥着这重重荒诞。它分明已然道德崩溃、冲突不停,到处却都在大谈和谐社会;宪法保证每个人的言论自由,但是法律也惩罚所有可以被定为危害国家安全的行为,你说不清哪句话一不小心就可能颠覆掉这么大的一个国家;它的一些官员公然四处寻找处女,色情服务无处不在,它却声称要用一款软件来保护那些上网的少年免受黄色内容的伤害…… 而许志永和他的同志,对社会满怀责任与深情,想通过自己的法律知识去帮助困境中的陌生人,以减少这个社会的不公,给那些悲观无力者希望。但他们想成立这样一家民间机构时,却因没有政府部门愿意出面担任主管单位,而不能登记为民办非企业单位。它不得不注册为“北京公盟咨询有限公司”以求生存。 专制政权总是以消除社会力量为首要任务,它不容许人们因相同志向与兴趣结合在一起,它可能分散权力中心的权威。当一个国家所有的社会力量都被清除时,它就是一个极权社会,国家力量无处不在,从你的工资单到卧室,政治权力无处不在,在情书中引用毛主席语录的年代不正如此吗?极权体制通过恐惧和欺骗造就孤立无援、丧失独立思考的个体,他们又是一场场荒诞的群众悲剧的材料。而三十年的改革之后,我们看到了市场力量的迅速兴起,却没看到社会力量的成熟。只有在一个健康而强大的市民社会才能去培育多元的价值观,让人们既抵制强大的政治力量,又防止仅仅沦为生产者和消费者,使每个人成为健康的公民。当权者了解这些,登记一家非赢利公益组织,要比登记一家公司要困难得多。这其中的含义一目了然——我允许你赚钱,其他不要管得太多。
这些跌落的人群,只能在家中叹息,拥挤在上访村里徒牢等待希望,举着申冤的牌子默默的站在法院、检察院乃至中央电视台门前。媒体很难给予他们空间,它们不仅被意识形态控制,也加入了娱乐化的潮流;社会精英很少关注他们的存在,精英们要大谈中国的全球领导力、经济增长率,弱者们不过是发展中不可避免的牺牲;官僚机构当然更不会有兴趣,这个政权建立的最基本哲学就是漠视人的尊严,人是工具、是材料,它曾经的国家主席都曾如此惨死,何况这些普通人;至于广阔的公众,他们看到身边的不幸者会有多么不幸,所以要拼命向上爬升,以获取少许的安全感……这样的社会充满不公、黑暗,因此尤其渴望正义与良知。 公盟旗下几十名律师几乎全部免费为不同的群体提供法律咨询,并以各种方式普及法律常识。从推动废除收容遣送制度到为邓玉娇案的辩护,再到为受到三聚氰胺奶粉影响的家庭,公盟像是过去六年中国法治进程的某种缩影,一群青年人如何用法律的武器来帮助普通人获得基本的权利和尊严。他们很少用口号和理论来表明姿态,而是用一个个具体的行动,推动公民权利的增长,为充满绝望和嘲讽的公共空间中增加希望。他们也从未放弃任何一个改善社会的机会,包括体制内。自从2003年当选为海淀区人大代表以外,许志永就不断运用新的身份,揭露种种问题。在三个月前的一次演讲所提到的,他们寻求的是团结、共识、参与、奉献,他们要通过点点努力,来改变中国长久以来恶劣的政治生态。一些时刻,他们成功了,另一些时刻,则失败了。他们当然也开罪不少当权者与利益集团——当他们为受害者寻求公正时,特权者的特权也因此减少了。 在7月23日的夜晚,他试图还在猜测到底是什么原因,造成了目前的困境。在意识形态死亡之后,党与政府早已分化为不同的利益集团。当他们的利益受损时,都会毫不留情的动用手中的权力资源。 即使在分析这一切时,志永仍旧保持着一贯的乐观。我记得两年前的一次交谈,那时他意气风发,相信2008年的奥运会将给中国带来一次巨大变革机会。当全世界都盯着北京时,政治权力将有所收敛,而不同民间组织都该利用良机,拓展公民社会的空间。那之前,一系列事件都表明,经由互联网的聚合与传播效应,弱势者可能与强势者进行大卫与歌利亚的战争,而且胜负未定。 那如今呢?两年以来,我看到的是政府权力借由巨大国家事件的增长,大地震、奥运会,还有金融危机,似乎每次挑战都必须借由国家权力的扩张才能应对。赈灾只有是政府出面,死亡的名单是国家的秘密,奥运会的一切都只能由国家承担,最富有的是中央企业,连年轻人都意识到了公务员才是世界上最美好的工作。那些自以为有性格的网民,轻易的汇聚成“爱国主义”的洪流。而社会力量,则困难重重,身份不清、财政吃紧、经常处于被收编的边缘。 但志永在困境之中看到的是希望。他为上访者提供法律援助,为毒奶粉的父母索赔,探访京城的黑监狱,他挨过打、被粗暴的拘留过,全因他试图为一群已经受难却失语的人群寻找公正。或许他在这一系列个人际遇中,感觉得到人们对正义与良知的巨大渴望。这种渴望让他温暖和坚定。 那天晚上,我们在蓟门桥分手。我记得他离去前说得最后几句话中一句是:“最坏的结果是抓我坐牢,这也没什么。”不过,我没把这话太当真。我想他们会对普通维权律师施以重手,但对许志永这位得到普遍关注的人物,会用更谨慎的方式。何况志永的方式是温和的,在一次讲演中他不强调,他们的方式不是批评——尽管批评很重要,也不是改良,当然更不会是对抗,而是建设。更何况,他还是一名区人大代表,如果要逮捕他,是要区人大通过的…… 但不到一周之后,就传来了相反的消息。7月29日的清晨5点,小区的保安看到他被四五个人带走,不知去向……
我们成了朋友。比起文章中尖锐,生活中的余杰善良、任性、小小的虚荣、喜欢回锅肉、要命的单相思一位长腿姑娘。在我们相识一年后,一位出版商发现了那些油印的文集,然后突然之间,他在大学中、在青年里、在社会精英中,他变成了炙手可热的人物。距离天安门的那场悲剧将近10年了,这也是思想上沉闷和过度谨慎的10年,但一个年轻人跳出来,用他几乎显然带着稚气的口吻表达他对文化、社会、政治的看法,他的勇气和热情感染了所有人。余杰显得既年轻又古老,他才25岁,但是他采用的方式又是中国人最熟知的——写文章、谈论思想、引起争论、刺激人们思考。他是个启蒙者,尽管思维有时过分单调。 他接下来的轨迹不再那么顺利。他的严厉批评态度,让校方难安,或许也让更多的保守者不适,2000年他毕业后,发现原本接收他的单位拒绝接受他。他成了一名独立作家。他依旧引起争议,忘记了是2000年还是2001年,他在一份期刊上发表了一篇名为《昆德拉与哈维尔──我们选择什么?我们承担什么?》借由中国知识分子对这两位捷克作家的态度,余杰试图剖析1990年代的文化心理——我们太聪明了,而缺乏严肃的道德立场。 似乎每一次公开讨论,都是一种价值观覆没前的最后顽抗。在1993年对于人文精神的讨论之后,人文精神被弃如敝履;而这次关于智慧和立场讨论之后,立场的最后防线也溃败了。 随着名声的提升、交往圈子的扩大、还有他在海外媒体上撰写的文章,余杰逐渐的被划到另一个群落——异议作家。紧接着,他的书无法继续在国内出版,国内的媒体禁止刊发他的文章,再接着他成为了一名基督徒…… 我们的关系日渐疏远。这既是因为离开大学之后,我们各自有了不同的生活轨道。或许也是因为在潜意识里,我觉得他的方式太过简单。一个新时代到了,那么多无穷的新事务,过分的道德判断,显得既单薄又粗暴。 一个新的时代真的到了。互联网热潮在1999年席卷了中国,是比尔•盖茨、斯蒂夫•乔布斯、丁磊、张朝阳,而不是罗素、卡夫卡、鲁迅或是李敖,成为了新的偶像人物,是资本与技术,而不是书籍与思想,成为时代精神的载体。 我先是在互联网公司,然后进入了一家新兴的报纸。这份报纸要报道的是中国融入全球的进程,跨国资本如何改造中国的面貌,技术如何冲破被禁锢的社会,市场化如何摧毁了计划体制,民营企业家怎样成为时代的英雄……总之,我们似乎看到了一个不同的世界。去他妈的政治问题、意识形态问题、道德立场问题,它们陈腐不堪了。我们有了苹果电脑和Google、出国旅行、充沛的工作机会与性爱;也可以大谈硅谷精神与摇滚精神的相似之处,评论“9•11”与美国外交政策,偶尔还引用一下詹姆斯•乔伊斯;我们心安理得说,告别革命吧,中国需要的是渐进,放弃批评吧,我们要的是建设性,强调道德是愚蠢的,因为它通往灾难;我们聪明、时髦、以为无所不知、或许还挺酷……我们是中国经济奇迹的一代。
两年前认识许志永时,我对他身上散发出的活力和强烈的正义感折服,它既让我钦佩也让我不安。我当然了解这个广阔的中国,有着无数的个人悲剧,倘若你在中国的县城与乡村旅行,你会有一种扑面的窒息感,它不在于人的内在悲剧性,而是显而易见的社会不公和制度性的伤害。但是许志永却决定将这些私人愤慨转化成行动。和余杰一样,他也生于1973年,他的出生地似乎决定了他未来的道路——河南民权县。 我们因一个青年组织而相识。这个组织的大部分成员,都是中国的成功者,投资银行家、出版商、企业高级管理人员、艺术家,他们是中国经济奇迹的参与者也受益者。许志永谈论则是另一个世界,上访者、无奈的父母亲、被判冤狱的人——一个被侮辱和损害的世界。对于这个世界,我们曾长久的转过头去,假装他们的不存在。我们无节制的崇拜成功者,不追问他们为何成功,不愿为失败者少许停留,不去理解他们的困境。但正因这种忽略和回避,这个黑暗的世界日渐扩大了,最终它可能会影响到、吞噬掉每个人。让我们问问现实吧:我们的心肝在哪里? 或许也因为许志永的被捕,余杰的形象再度浮现出来,我开始觉得他的那些愤怒和呐喊,或许失之片面,仍对这个社会至关重要。如果一个如许志永这样温和的建设者,都要面临如此残酷的对待,那么这个国家蕴涵的巨大黑暗力量,是必须被不断检讨和纠正的。 一些曾经被我淡忘的书籍和人物再度进入的脑海中。奥威尔的《1984》,还有马丁•尼姆勒的那著名的诗句: 开始他们抓共产党员, 我没说话,因为我不是共产党员。 后来他们来抓犹太人, 我没说话,因为我不是犹太人。 后来他们抓工会会员, 我没说话,因为我不是工会会员。 他们又来抓天主教徒, 我没说话,因为我是新教徒。 最后他们冲我来了, 已经没有人可以替我说话了。 六年前,我热情洋溢的写过一篇文章,谈论我们出生在1970年代的一代人的使命和希望。全球化和技术革命给我们带来的自由和力量,我们可能因此将中国引入一个新的舞台。如今,希望犹在,那种浅薄的乐观却迅速的消退。倘若我们这一代不能直面这个国家深层的困境,用肤浅的时髦来转移我们对这种内在困境的理解和改善,那么我们只能被证明是轻飘飘的一代。让我们从互联网和消费主义营造的小世界中走出来,去迎接这个真实的社会。像所有社会的转型期一样,今天的中国面临着艰苦的工作,这一代与未来几代人,要将我们的热忱与精力投入到一场构建一个值得生活的好社会的过程。我们需要揭露黑暗的新闻记者、富有正义感的律师、有社会良知的商人、愿意推动变革的官员、值得尊敬的非政府组织……他们恪守类似的准则,对未来有着相似的憧憬,他们用积极的思考与行动,来取代消极的嘲讽,用具体而细微的行动取代了空洞的呐喊,富有激情却足够冷静。 当然,我们大多数人都会自私怯懦,不会有许志永的勇敢。我们也没有能力去面对强大的官僚组织。但你能够努力成为一个社会中富有建设的一员。去拒绝身边的谎言,做一个直言不讳的人;去签名,表明你的立场;你成不了维权律师,却可以为这些组织捐款、提供别的帮助;你可以在你的报纸上,为这些社会的不公提供更多的版面,而不仅仅是无聊的娱乐消息;你可以和身边的人结伴旅行,真心的理解这个国家的现状;你可以在互联网上发起free internet campaign,去抵制那该死的防火墙;你可以在你创办的公司,强调自尊和公平的文化,而不是那些拙劣的市场规则;去做一个好医生,让你的病人感到人道;你可以在餐桌上对自己的朋友说,我们别谈论股票和房价了,我们来谈论一本书,我们不要再说房祖名了,来说说许志永他们做的事;去放弃那些自我原谅——我也没有办法……相信个人的力量,你会想影响周围的人,然后这种影响会扩散开,友爱、同情、公正、正直,这些美好的东西,会逐渐浮现而出…… 亦见:《我们的进步年代》 (注:本文仅代表作者本人观点。作者邮件edmund.z.xu@gmail.com,他最近的一本书是《醒来——110年的中国变革》)
August 08 汉娜 阿伦特 《论暴力》(摘录)汉娜 阿伦特 Hannah Arendt 的《论暴力》,其精华部分在1969年发表于《纽约书 评》。
摘选其中几段:
-> 公众事务的官僚化越严重,人们就越倾向于采取暴力手段。在充分发展的官僚政 治制度下,人们不知该与谁争辩,不知该向谁诉冤,也不知权利的压力能施加在谁 身上。官僚政治是这样一种政府形式:人人都被剥夺了政治自由和行动权力,因为 无人统治并不等于没有统治,人人都没有权力的情况就是没有独裁者的独裁政治。
-> 暴力的有效性并不是由数量决定的,......但是数量的确有最引人注目的威慑力 ,这一点在集体暴力中体现的最充分。正如法农(Franz Fanon)所说,在军事行动 和革命行动中“最先消失的是个人主义”,这千真万确;取而代之的是一种更为强大 的集体一致性,事实证明这种一致性是一条比各种类型的友谊(国家之间的或个人 之间的)更结实的纽带(尽管没那么长久):“暴力的实施把人作为整体联系在一起 ,因为每个人都是这条巨大锁链上的一环,都是暴力这一呼啸而起的有机体的一部 分。”
-> 法农的这些话指出了人们所熟悉的战场上的官兵士气这一现象,在那里每天都要 发生一些高尚的、最无私的事件。在少数死亡能扮演政治角色的异常情况下,死亡 看起来是所有使人平等的事务中最有权威的一个。死亡这种体验(无论是真的即将 死去,还是内心意识到自己的必死命运),可能是最具反政治色彩的,因为死亡通 常都是在极其孤独和虚弱的情况下到来的,这就意味着我们将离开我们的伙伴—— 随之而去的是使生命富有价值的与人相处和一致行动。
-> 然而在行动中集体面对的死亡却呈现出另外一副面孔,在那种情况下,似乎没有什 么比死亡的临近更可能增强我们的生命力了,一些我们通常意识不到的东西——伴同 我们个人死亡的是我们所依附的潜在的集体的不朽(在最终意义上,甚至是令人类的 不朽)——这些认识步入我们体验的中心,其结果是生命本身(人类不朽的生命,由个 人死亡来供应养料的生命)仿佛“沸腾”起来,并在暴力的实施中得到了体现。...... 在这里只谈情感是不对的。更重要的是这些体验(它们的最初力量是不容怀疑的) 从未在政治、制度方面表现出来。然而不可否认的是,由集体暴力所引发的同仇敌 忾的兄弟情感,错误地引导许多善良的人产生这样的希望:一个新的“社会”以及“新 的领导人”将从中诞生。这个希望只是一个幻想,原因很简单:人与人之间的关系没 有比这种只有在生命临危的关头才体现的兄弟情谊更为短暂的了。
-> 故而早在康拉德·洛伦茨(Konrad Lorenz)在动物身上发现进攻性这一有助于生 存的功能之前,暴力就被称赞为生命力、尤其是创造性地一种表现。...... 法农深 受索列尔将暴力、生命和创造性三者等同起来的理论的影响,我们都知道这种陈旧 的对三者的结合是多么严重地遗留在新一代叛逆者的头脑里——他们对暴力的兴趣 伴随着对生命的美化。暴力时常被他们用作对付任何阻碍生命意识的事务的必要的 暴力反对手段。这种貌似新颖的从生物学角度进行的对暴力的辩解,同样与我们政 治思想中最古老的传统中最有害的成分有关。权力在本质上具有扩张性,正如德·茹 沃奈尔所论证的,“它受内部力量驱使不断成长”,它之所以具有创造力是因为“成长 的本能对它是适当的”。... 一个凯瑟琳大帝的随行俄国人这样说道,“人民竖起绞 刑架并非要对暴政进行道义上的制裁,而是对衰弱无能进行生物学上的惩罚”... 因 此,革命的矛头指向已确立的政权只是“外界看来如此”,它们的实际效果是“给权力 注入新的生命力使其稳定下来,并摧毁一切阻挠权力发展的障碍”。...... 萨克斯 医生认为没有什么比政治问题中的有机思想这一传统(即用生物学词语解释权力和 暴力)在理论上更危险的了。
-> 毫无疑问,这些有机比喻表面上的合理性在涉及到种族问题时尤其具有蛊惑人的 危险。种族主义,无论是针对白人的还是针对黑人的,仅从定义上就充满了暴力的 感觉,因为它反对的是自然的生物事实————白皮肤或黑皮肤,而皮肤的颜色是不能 被任何说服和权力所改变的。当赌注已下时,人们唯一能做的就是杀死持票人。种 族之间的暴力往往是血腥的,但这并不是“无理性的”,它是种族主义必然的、理性 的结果。
June 30 Change Lies in Iran's Institutions (zz WSJ)这是一个国家的历史交叉口。 ================================================== Change Lies in Iran's Institutions
![]() It's hard to avoid the conclusion that the flames of protest are being slowly smothered in the streets of Iran. Still, even that will leave behind embers of opposition, and the key question in weeks ahead is whether there are any forces within Iran able to keep those embers smoldering. Anyone who has followed recent Iranian history knows there are two places to look for the answer to that question: the military and the clerical establishment. If cracks in the support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad start appearing in those institutions, the Tehran Spring set off by protests over Iran's presidential election could evolve into a movement with reach and consequence, and not just a short-lived outburst of frustration. It's hard for any outsider to know what currents run through these two opaque institutions, of course. At this point, though, a reasonable guess is that the clerical establishment is a more likely source of meaningful opposition to the Ahmadinejad regime than is the military -- but that neither is emerging yet as a real force for change. Look first at the military. Iran essentially has two different military forces -- or, perhaps more accurately, two and a half. It has a traditional military, the descendent of the Shah of Iran's imperial army, which is in charge of defending Iran's borders and maintaining a traditional military infrastructure. But the force that has the real power is Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Revolutionary Guard is a parallel military organization set up after the 1979 revolution to ensure that clerical leaders would have at their disposal a force with unquestioned loyalty and a check on traditional military officers, who were suspect because of their roots in the Shah's regime. During the long and grinding Iran-Iraq war, the Revolutionary Guards also developed a kind of junior offshoot, the Basij militias, to bring more idealistic and fearless young men to the war front. Mr. Ahmadinejad himself is believed to be a former Basij member, and the force now has evolved into loosely organized civilian militias spread across the country. The Revolutionary Guards appeared to back Mr. Ahmadinejad when he was first elected four years ago, and appear reliably loyal to him now that his re-election has been questioned. Indeed, the Basij have been brutally active in putting down protests. But this parallel military structure has, as one would expect, bred deep animosity among regular army officers, who resent both their second-class status and the drain of weapons and resources going to the Revolutionary Guards. "It can't be overstated, the hatred the regular army feels for the IRGC," as the Revolutionary Guards are known, says Joseph Lydon, an intelligence briefer for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard who specializes in Iranian affairs. That means the regular army, with ample reason to resent Mr. Ahmadinejad and his Revolutionary Guard loyalists, is a potential force to power the opposition. One U.S. official says there are reports of "discomfort" among some army officers -- and even among some leaders of the Revolutionary Guard -- at how opposition is being crushed within Iran. But the regular army has been cowed over the years, and there are no indications of organized opposition taking shape. "The big players in the Iranian military are just standing by and watching," says one analyst. That could change if protesters manage to keep their movement alive, but for now the traditional military seems far more likely to follow a sustained opposition movement than to lead one. The story might be different inside the nation's clerical establishment, where at least some voices of protest have been heard over the way the presidential election and its aftermath have been handled by Mr. Ahmadinejad and the nation's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. For instance, one cleric, Ayatollah Asadollah Bayat Zanjani, initially called the election a "gross injustice," and in recent days has defended protesters. But the great hope of reformers is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is one of Iran's most influential clerical figures and a longtime critic of Mr. Ahmadinejad. He also is chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a group of 86 clerics charged by the Iranian constitution with the task of overseeing the supreme leader -- and vested with the power to remove him. Mr. Rafsanjani has periodically, but unreliably, been reported to be working behind the scenes to organize clerical opposition to Mr. Ahmadinejad, and possibly to Ayatollah Khamenei. But the hope that Mr. Rafsanjani might lead a charge to overturn the election or force regime change cooled a bit over the weekend, when he issued an elliptical statement calling for a thorough investigation of election complaints, but also saying "suspicious hands" were trying to drive a wedge between the public and the government. So for now, those hoping for change in Iran, including the U.S. government, are left to wonder and hope, mostly helplessly, about the country's key institutions. "It is utterly impossible to predict revolutions, and the only time revolutions succeed is when the regime loses the will or the capacity to use violence," says Kenneth Pollack, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. "And I don't see any evidence this regime has lost its will or capability to use violence." |
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