Healthcare and Taxes

According to ISI the proposed health care bill is dangerous for the health of small businesses.  Provisions include a payroll tax of 8% of payrolls if small businesses do not offer health care.  In addition, high income earners will get hit with a host of new payroll taxes taking marginal federal rates to 44% for the individuals earning more than $500,000.

 

Add on 11% state income tax in CA, 8.5% sales tax, and miscellaneous other taxes (including capital gains), and for the residents of some states the government is taking well over 60% of the incremental income above $500K. 

 

This certainly seems like a back door way to cap pay without having the authority to explicitly do so. 

 

Inflation

ISI’s  Ed Hyman notes 4 items that are pointing to higher inflation: gold, GSCI, the trade weighted dollar, and import prices ex fuel have begun to move up.  The fed's favorite measure the 5-year forward TIP market is also stirring.

 

Multi-Family Housing

According to the Wall Street Journal, after losing billions on single-family residential loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are bracing for another round of losses, this time on apartment lending.  Previous losses already forced the U.S. Treasury to pump more than $110 billion into the companies.  Fannie, which has the highest delinquency for multifamily properties, saw apartment loans that were 60 days or more late on payment increase to 0.62% in September, up from 0.16% the same month last year.

 

Tax Burden

A couple of weeks ago I discussed the tax burden in California on the highest wage earners, which generated a number of responses and questions about Federal Taxes.  Mint.com (being acquired by Intuit) put out the following statistics regarding income taxes (this is federal income taxes only, and excludes capital gains, etc):

 

Top 1% (making over $500K) pay 41% of federal income taxes

The top 5% (making over $200k) pay 61% of federal income taxes

The top 10% (making over $100K) pay 71% of federal income taxes

The top 25% (making over $75K) pay 87% of federal income taxes

The bottom 50% (making less than $40K) pay 2.9% of federal income taxes

A full 47% of “tax units” will pay zero.  Of 307 million Americans there are 152 million “tax units.” 

 

The median income in the US is just over $50K per year. 

 

 

 

Real Estate

I somewhat understand why the homeowner’s tax credit is in place, to somehow reward those willing to take on more risk or trying to get the housing market moving.  But why are we providing tax breaks to homebuilders?  This just increases supply in the same market where we are providing incentives to people to absorb that supply.

 

Government continues to amaze me with their basic misunderstanding of supply and demand.  If they want home prices to stabilize or go up, and are willing to provide tax credits to accomplish this goal, then why are they also providing tax breaks to those who would increase the supply, thereby putting further pressure on prices? 

 

More Real Estate

The outlook for the home market dimmed this week as residential construction and mortgage applications fell and loan delinquencies reached a record.  “I don’t think the housing crisis is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com, said.  “I think we’re going to see another leg down.”

New home sales may begin to pick up by the start of the so-called spring selling season, said Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder.  Existing house sales may take longer.  Residential construction and property sales led the way out of the previous seven recessions going back to 1960, said David Berson, chief economist of PMI Group, the mortgage insurer in Walnut Creek, California.

“You don’t pay a mortgage with economic output, you pay a mortgage with a paycheck,” Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist, said.

The share of all types of home loans with one or more payments overdue climbed to a record seasonally adjusted 9.6% in the third quarter, the Washington-based trade group said in a report yesterday.

There are signs that parts of the U.S. are rebounding.  California, among the states where the housing bust started, is one of the few areas that’s beginning to recover.  October home prices in Orange County, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area increased from a year earlier, MDA DataQuick, a San Diego property information service, said this week.  The number of sales also increased in the Bay Area and Southern California.

 

Mortgage Rates

If the Federal Reserve is content letting the long end of the yield curve rise, it seems as though their goal of lowering mortgage rates may be at risk.  The spread between the FHLM 30-year mortgage and 10-year yields is 84 basis points.  Currently (data through May 6) the Federal Reserve has bought $366 billion of MBS and has the authority to buy up to $1.25 trillion.

 

Because of this massive buying, anything is possible with this spread, even inversion.  Unless the Federal Reserve plans on driving mortgage rates lower than Treasuries, this spread cannot tighten much more than it already has.  Once this spread cannot tighten any further, mortgage rates will be at the mercy of the Treasury market.

 

Velocity of Money

From Jim Furey of Furey Research Partners: 

 

“Falling money velocity, as has been the case since 1Q08 is accompanied by declining inflation, lower interest rates and small-cap relative outperformance.  Current money velocity is at its lowest level since ’81.  Examining four key periods of declining money velocity since 1981, we make the following observations: i) core and headline inflation rates have fallen in each period by an average annualized rate of -17% and -14%, respectively; (i) the Fed Funds target rate has been reduced during each period by a -38% average annualized rate; and (iii) small-caps have outperformed large-caps on average by +5% annualized rate.

 

Implications of rising money velocity.  Money velocity at 3Q09 posted a slight uptick from 2Q09, but it is too early to tell if it has begun a cyclical upswing, such as in ’87, ’94 and ’04.  We do know that when it does start moving upwards, we can expect rising inflation, higher rates and small-caps to underperform large-caps, if past is prologue.”

 

Thanks Jim

 

Conclusion

Are the data points really that bad?  The real estate market is still on life-support without government intervention.  Will the stimulus be enough to turn that market, or will the cost associated with re-inflating that bubble be enough to sink us? 

 

The other data is mixed, and that is to be expected at this point in the “recovery”.  Anticipate continued mixed results on the economic front, with some deterioration as much of the low hanging fruit has been picked.  The preliminary 3^rd quarter GDP came in at 3.5%, but it looks like it will get revised down to 2.5%, which many are suggesting is purely due to government intervention.  Certainly we have a long way to go. 

 

With the leaders of the market rally (techs, small caps, financials, and inflation trades) pulling back while higher quality and more defensive names move to the forefront, it would appear that at minimum the market may pause into the end of the year.  I am net neutral, with a long bias towards higher quality names and a short bias towards lower quality names. 

 

Have a terrific Thanksgiving.  Remember that Friday is a shortened trading day and the US markets will be closed on Thursday. 

 

 

ZZ From Ned W. Brines

 

Removing the Stimulus

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa joined China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Mingkang to warn that the loose money policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve could fuel an asset bubble.  Shirakawa warned of "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy" because of the Fed's policy.  "The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government's indication that, in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won't raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation," Liu said.

 

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank will gradually withdraw the emergency cash it has pumped into the economy in order to ensure it doesn’t fuel inflation.  Trichet had previously signaled the ECB is unlikely to renew its offer of 12-month loans to banks after the third tranche in December.

The Chinese Central bank may raise deposit requirements for commercial lenders next year, according to Shanghai Securities News.  At a forum in Beijing, former central bank deputy governor Wu Xiaoling said the Peoples Bank of China should be allowed more authority to choose monetary policy tools in 2010 as economic recovery has already become steady.  Bank shares eased 1% in the local session overnight on back of the report.

 

More Accounting Shenanigans by the Banks

An amendment that is strongly supported by the banks is being considered which, in addition to removing mark-to-market accounting, allows a systemic regulator “to order the Securities and Exchange Commission, which now oversees the Financial Accounting Standards Board, to suspend or change any accounting rule that the council thinks is a threat to financial stability.”

 

“The amendment has been endorsed by the American Bankers Association, which says the SEC’s focus on helping investors is too narrow.”  

 

What!?  Reduce transparency even further for a group of zombie banks who almost took this country down as a result of their complete incompetence?

 

Unbelievable!

 

Commercial Real Estate

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is underwriting $400 million of bonds backed by an Ohio real estate company’s shopping centers, the first sale to tap a U.S. program to unlock lending in the commercial mortgage market.  The bond is backed by 28 properties owned by Developers Diversified Realty Corp.  The Federal Reserve opened its Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)in June to newly issued commercial mortgage-backed securities to stimulate lending and avert a wave of foreclosures as borrowers fail to refinance.  There have been no new sales of the debt since June 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

“It would be good for the market psyche to actually see a new deal done,” said Kent Born, senior managing director at PPM America Inc., an investment manager in Chicago.  “But as a practical matter it’s not going to get us back to the type of deals that were the bread and butter of the market merely two years ago.”  Sales of commercial mortgage-backed debt slumped to $12.2 billion last year from a record $237 billion in 2007, according to JPMorgan.

 

Deals from JP Morgan and Bank of America are reportedly in the pipeline. 

 

Tax Receipts Remain Weak

The chart below, courtesy the Rockefeller Institute, shows the cumulative changes year over year in income, sales, and property taxes for the US over the past five years.  Typically tax rates have little to do with the actual amount of taxes collected, GDP is the primary catalyst to tax receipts.  As you can see in the chart below, as of the end of the second quarter the rate of decline in tax receipts hadn’t yet bottomed.  This decline is putting severe pressure on state and local governments at a time when the Federal government is attempting to stimulate the economy with massive deficit spending.  Since state and local governments need to run balanced budgets, their resulting pullback is having a contra effect on the efforts of the Feds. 

 

The headline in this weekend’s Orange County Register-State Officials Pay to Drop 18%! 

 

 

Oil

An official of the International Energy Agency said the world is much closer to running out of oil than the agency's statistics had shown.  Under pressure from the U.S., the IEA distorted statistics to show that more oil would be available, the official said.  "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120 million barrels a day by 2030, although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116 million and then 105 million last year," the official said.  "The 120 million figure always was nonsense, but even today's number is much higher than can be justified, and the IEA knows this."

 

 

Is the Data Really That Bad?

 

November 23, 2009

 “A proposal to give banking regulators authority to block accounting standards is “a terrible idea,” Paul A. Volcker

 

 

Weekly percentage performance for the major indices
Based on last Friday’s official settlement...

INDU:         0.46%
SPX:           -0.19%
COMPQ:     -1.01%
RUT:           -0.27%

 

Market

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke actually admitted this week that a weak dollar could cause rising commodity prices and inflation, and the dollar responded with a small, but positive move.  To my knowledge this is the first time anyone in charge of this country’s currency has admitted what every Econ 101 student already knows-a weak currency is inflationary.  While the US dollar caught a slight bid this week, the fed funds futures continue to reduce its belief that he’ll follow words with actions.  The odds of a 25 bps rate hike have now been pushed out to Sept 2010.  

 

What is going on with the Treasury market?  Yields on the short end are zero (or less), and on the longer end sitting at 3.356% and 4.295% for the 10 and 30 year respectively.  The 2-10 spread at 266 basis points (2.66%) is the widest it has been since mid summer, which should help the banks if they ever start lending again.

 

Merrill put out a piece this week on asset allocation among institutional investors.   Based on a survey they conducted with more than 100 institutional investors they found a tremendous strategic desire to move away from US equities, particularly large cap, and toward a more global mandate.  Emerging market equities are the most desirable asset class over the next 12 months with 42% looking to add/increase investment.  On a percentage basis, nearly as many investors (39%) seek to decrease investment in US large cap equities.  This could result in $300-500bn flowing out of US large cap equities over the next 3-5 years from institutional investors.

 

Economy

 

	Actual	Consensus	Prior
Retail Sales	1.4%	0.9%	-2.3%
Retail Sales ex-auto	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%
Business Inventories	-0.4%	-0.7%	-1.6%
Core PPI	-0.6%	0.1%	-0.1%
PPI	0.3%	0.5%	-0.6%
Capacity Utilization	70.7%	70.8%	70.5%
Industrial Production	0.1%	0.4%	0.6%
Housing Starts	529K	600K	592K
Building Permits	552K	580K	575K
CPI	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
Core CPI	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
Initial Jobless Claims	505K	504K	505K
Leading Indicators	0.3%	0.4%	1.0%
Philly Fed	16.7	12.2	11.5

 

The leading economic indictors slowed dramatically in October from 1.0% to 0.3%, slightly less than consensus.  Positive contributions from interest rate spreads, stock prices, jobless claims and the average workweek were offset by nondefense capital goods orders, deliveries, consumer expectations and building permits. 

Initial unemployment claims rose slightly to 505K.  The number of people receiving jobless benefits dropped, as did those getting extended payments.

Housing starts posted their worst decline of the year (-11%), and the lowest absolute number since the spring as the homebuyers credit expired and then was extended.  Building permits also dropped by 4%.  Mortgage applications just hit a 12 year low, which doesn’t bode well for housing turnover. 

October Retail Sales rose 1.4%, .5% more than expected but ex auto’s they were up just 0.2%, 0.2% below forecasts.  The Sept headline figure was revised lower by 0.8%, so taken together the Sept/Oct data is a touch light.  Motor vehicles/parts sales rose 10.2% in Aug, fell 14.3% in Sept and rose 7.4% in Oct.  Sales ex auto’s and gasoline rose 3%, right in line with expectations.  Sales rose in the following categories: food/beverages, restaurants, health/personal care, clothing, department stores and online retailers.  They fell in furniture, electronics, building materials and sporting goods.  

 

Gold

We have been long gold as a hedge against a weak dollar, and the metal has performed as expected, rising to $1163 per ounce.  Analysts have been raising their price targets as they tend to do when asset prices go up, and a legitimate question is whether the metal is in a bubble or not.  We don’t think so, however, the chart below from The Big Picture shows the metal in relation to US Treasury Bond futures.  Today’s ratio is comparable to the prior peak in gold roughly 29 years ago. 

 

Our view is that the commodity won’t turn down until the Fed addresses the ills afflicting the currency.  Although Greenspan, whoops, Bernanke (is there a difference other than the beard?) addressed concerns about the dollar’s collapse for the first time this week, with unemployment north of 10% it doesn’t appear the Fed will be acting anytime soon. 

 

Look for a new peak in this chart!

 

 

 

 

In One Home, a Mighty City's Rise and Fall

Price of Typical Detroit House: $7,100

From WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125390841258341665.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEADNewsCollection

By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS

DETROIT -- On a grassy lot on a quiet block on a graceful boulevard stands the answer to a perplexing question: Why does the typical house in Detroit sell for $7,100?

The brick-and-stucco home at 1626 W. Boston Blvd. has watched almost a century of Detroit's ups and downs, through industrial brilliance and racial discord, economic decline and financial collapse. Its owners have played a part in it all. There was the engineer whose innovation elevated auto makers into kings; the teacher who watched fellow whites flee to the suburbs; the black plumber who broke the color barrier; the cop driven out by crime.

The last individual owner was a subprime borrower, who lost the house when investors foreclosed.

A city that began a slow slide 60 years ago has now entered a free fall, pushed by the twin crises of housing and cars. Detroit's population peaked at 1.85 million in the 1950 census. It is now less than half that. In July, unemployment hit 28.9%, almost triple the national average.

And the median selling price for a home stood at a paltry $7,100 as of July, according to First American CoreLogic Inc., a real-estate research firm -- down from $73,000 three years earlier. A typical house in Cleveland sells for $65,000. One in St. Louis goes for $120,000.

But, battered and forlorn today, both Detroit and 1626 W. Boston Blvd. were solid and optimistic 90 years ago.

U can continue at

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125390841258341665.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEADNewsCollection

 

 

 

突然在msn 上瞟到这样一个标题：

然后觉得要么是自己想像力不够，要么这个专家足够脑残：

（1）债券市场薄弱，跟发展基金产品有个狗屁关系？基金产品多元化，难道让基金去发债？

（2）私募基金纳入监管。。。 难道私募基金没有注册过xx投资公司？什么时候把证监会纳入纳税人的监管才是亟待解决的问题。

TNND

最近很懒，只能弄些二手的文字了。

 

====================================================

 

我们这一代

 

金山词霸在线版，查“early”，见第一条例句。 巨汗.  ==bb

JUNE 30, 2009

Change Lies in Iran's Institutions

 

摘自《中国民企错失的半年》 FT Chinese

 

在目前的学界出现了一种非常独特、而又很有代表性的观点，一些专家认为，中国经济要走出本轮经济危机，首先必须靠固定资产投资以及大型国营企业来发挥作用，而要让“热”起来的经济持续下去，就必须依靠社会消费和中小民营企业的投资。这种两段论让人想起一个比喻：好比一个家庭陷入了困境，父母把好吃的都给了大儿子，然后对二儿子说，这个家要维持下去，就全靠你了。

早晨，一个人，顶着雨伞，拖着标准157的大箱子，背着鼓鼓的背包，穿过茫茫细雨的街道和茫茫行路的人群，钻进上野（Ueno）又一个迷宫一样的地铁车站。

在上班的人流里，我是一个异客，人们用异样的眼光打量我，就像这些天我用好奇的眼光打量他们一样。

 

虽然上野是京成线（东京到成田机场）的始发站，但像我这样拖着行李赶飞机的人，似乎就我一个。坐在铁路（不是地铁）车厢里，我的心绪很奇怪，是那种每到旅行结束时特有的心情：疲劳、怀念与担忧交织在一起。在外2周已经让我很想回到家好好休息，特别是有好几天只睡4-5个小时和乘通宵巴士，但日本的惊喜确实让我对这次旅行有点恋恋不舍，东京给我一种熟悉的大都市的感觉，这种像上海一样的都市感觉是在纽约也不曾感到过的。京都、大阪还有其他城市都有一种惬意的生活气息，马路很窄，店铺很小，东西很精致，生活很近。或者说，日本的城市可以叫做“弄堂城市”，让我这个弄堂长大的上海人倍感亲切。食物更是让我怀念的最大理由，作为一个爱吃鱼爱到死星人，顿顿有鱼吃的生活简直是我的梦想。而且那是一种放到嘴里就可以化掉的生鱼寿司（Sashimi），鱼的鲜嫩，米的糯性，加上一点点芥末的辛。我依稀感觉有一种奶油味和甜味在那咬下去的瞬间出现。

 

不过现在我坐在车厢里，还有一阵不安袭来。又要回到日常的生活中，伴着各种计划、目标和功课（广义）的是压力和甚至没有时间吃饭的日子。Escape正式结束。

 

我还有一种奇异的感觉，是那种恍惚和不真实，人们生活的距离是那么大，但有时候空间的距离会极度缩小，然后又放大。就像坐在姬路城（himeji）小天守里和其他游客一起等雨停的时候；在明治神宫后院里看到两个小男孩嬉戏的时候；或是在前一天午夜胶囊旅馆里的休息室里上网，空空的房间里，只有另一个坐在对面的扎两股辫子、穿长统袜在边打psp边看电视的丑陋的异装男的时候。

 

也许，这就是旅行的乐趣，或者逃离的乐趣。

 

========================后记的分割线==================

 

已经回到LA 将近1周，回来以后忙着搬家和睡觉和复习，一直没空续这个Japan的题目。

所以先写这个尾巴，至于中间每天只睡4-5个小时的生活，留待我慢慢补。

照片也是。 

 

The most previlage for a tourist is that one can take time observing the people and their life outside of their lives and the city. Be an observer. 在京都也是。我发现自己很enjoy观察这一张张陌生的面孔：忙碌的、紧张的、疲劳的、自我沉浸着的。在茫茫的人流中，我知道我不属于这些掐着时间上班、赴约、或是回家的人，但我知道我曾经在某一个城市属于过这样一群人，或是不远的将来也会属于这样一群。而就在短短旅行的现在，我可以不是，我能够漫步在街道上让人们一个个的从我身边超过，用散漫的眼神打量着广告牌和霓虹灯，发现一些城市细小而独有的特征。汉堡的大小和口味，路边的神龛，人们走路的姿势，奇装异服的人，染发的男孩和女孩化妆的程度。

 

其实，在我观察别人的同时，对方向我这个异客投来异样和审视的眼光。我隐隐的感觉，穿着、发型、神态都无可避免的把游客和当地人区别开来。但是，我却又一次次被人认错，对我大说一通日语。这也是中韩同学的尴尬，金发碧眼的同学时不时蹦出两句日语会受到对方惊赞的目光，但对于平板脸小眼睛的东方人来说。除非你对口语有足够自信，不然还是省了那两句 Ohayo 吧。

 

 

某同学blog里引用这样一段对上海男人的描述（该同学并没表示赞同此观点）。

因为我的圈子里上海男人比较多，故把该段摘来，大家对号入座：

=================快乐的引用的分割线================

 

　上海男人

　　虽说上海男人很顾家会过日子，但上海人普遍歧视外地人，就连首都人民他们都不放在眼里，更何况其它省市，嫁给这种势力的人，这辈子就别想翻身。据说能从口袋里同时掏出手帕和纸巾的男人肯定是上海男人（也许有点夸张，但一点也不为过）。上海男人在这个方面经常被北方“大汉”斥为“矫情”，也就是做作的意思。 但这一点却在女人中间非常受欢迎，就算是矫情，也好过整天和脖根耳后有“肥沃土壤”的男人一起出没。所以，把自己收拾得一尘不染兼香喷喷的男人肯定是上海男人。

　　上海人普遍好面子，上海的男人财不大，气是不敢粗的；气不粗，当也不能“短”。轧朋友，新选的女友一定要比先前“甩”了的那个要“正点”，否则怎么在一班兄弟面前“扬眉吐气”呢！ 上海男人崇尚“名牌”，手表、鞋子、皮包．．．一路到底。有钱的就去大店买正牌，那“囊中羞涩”的自也有他的购物渠道，只要你人还算长的登样，没准“淘”来的“名牌”还能唬弄过去。

　　 上海男人喜欢斤斤计较地把钱算来算去，自认为是算得精刮得不得了，可算到头仍就是个打工的。上海男人精明，但精明得有理可依，让你无以辩驳。上海男人会理直气壮地向的士司机要回为数不多的找头；上海男人会熟练地找出Ａ点到Ｂ点的最佳路线而不愿去多走一步冤枉路；上海男人总也习惯不了付小费，因为消费者本身便承担了上帝的角色。

=================快乐的引用的分割线================

 

Date:       May 4th, 2009

 

To:         USC University Park Community

 

From:       Department of Public Safety

 

Re:         Incident Resolution Notices

 

In an effort to better communicate with the campus community about public safety issues, we are pleased to provide the following Incident Resolution Notice.

 

Notices of this nature detail instances in which DPS and/or LAPD have been able to bring a resolution to reported illegal acts affecting our community members.  We look forward to providing you with more updates of this nature.

 

Incident:  Robbery

Date:  4/24/09 - 8:24 PM

Location: 36th Place & Catalina Ave. Los Angeles, CA. (Off

Campus).   

 

Description:  A female employee of the university was approached by a male suspect who brandished a firearm, demanded her property and when she screamed, pushed her to the ground and struck her in the head with the weapon. The suspect then fled from the location with the victim’s property.

Disposition:   Based upon investigative leads obtained from DPS

officers along with the victim, the suspect was arrested by LAPD. The victim was subsequently able to positively identify the suspect from a photo line-up. This suspect may be responsible for similar crimes in the area during the past two weeks.

 

Sincerely,

 

USC Department of Public Safety

 

=================快乐的分割线======================

 

以下是与某位住在那个拐角的同学的对话：

 

 Kenneth =champion说:
什么时候 你在家窗口按个DV，估计一年下来可以剪辑个纪录片 卖钱

 

某同学 说:
。。。。。。。。

 

 Kenneth =champion说:
when she screamed, (the suspect ) pushed her to the ground and struck her in the head with the weapon.

 

 Kenneth =champion说:
已经可以改买动作片的价钱了    哈哈哈哈

Which one below is not a correct way to calculate GDP:

 

A, consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

B, Wages and Salaries +Interest Payments +Business profits +Rent +Taxes less subsidies

C, Coins, Paper cash and bank deposits

D, Total value added of products by all the industries, adding taxes less subsidies

 

 

前面的题目太严肃了，来点有趣的：

 

Another best theater play I have ever seen~~

 

--LYDIA

 

本来没对这部戏有多期待，事实证明我错了。

周三晚上去看的，LA downtown， LA Opera 的对面，

剧本、表演、舞美都没话说，将近2个半小时的演出一点也不觉得长。

就像最后导演说的那样，这出戏里面的层次太多了，每个层次都充满了角色之间的矛盾冲突。

 

BTW，演员表演尺度也很大， ：P

 

============

 

Be Aware

Recommended for ages 16+

Family drama about coping with the brain injury of a child; domestic violence, sexuality, possible brief nudity, mature themes; not recommended for children.

============

“possible” 这个词用得。。。

昨天WSJ 的头版头条：

Lewis Testifies U.S. Urged Silence on Deal

Bank of America Chief Says Bernanke, Paulson Barred Disclosure of Merrill Woes Because of Fears for Financial System

 

Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis testified he was pressured to keep silent about deepening financial difficulties at Merrill Lynch.

Q: Were you instructed not to tell your shareholders what the transaction was going to be?

A: I was instructed that 'We do not want a public disclosure.'

Q: Who said that to you?

A: Paulson...

Q: Had it been up to you would you [have] made the disclosure?

A: It wasn't up to me.

Q: Had it been up to you.

A: It wasn't.

 

今天WSJ C1版头条：

Cuomo Urges Probe of BofA Deal Pressure

Lewis Testimony Raises Many Issues; Did U.S. Overstep?

第一段：

New York's attorney general urged federal regulators to scrutinize the pressure applied by former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Bank of America Corp.'s chief executive as the bank wrestled with its takeover of Merrill Lynch & Co.

 

Jackie Chan's China comments prompt backlash (AP)

 

 

==================

 

演员可以不懂政治，但一定不要谈政治，

商人一定要懂政治，但也一定不要谈政治，

政客可以不懂政治，但一定要谈政治。

其实很无聊。。。。。。